Determinants of Insurance Inclusion in an Emerging Market: A Moderated-Mediation PLS-SEM Analysis of Financial and Insurance Literacy in Uzbekistan

Insurance inclusion remains low across emerging markets; Uzbekistan, with penetration below 1% of GDP, is one example. The main goal of this study is to identify the behavioural determinants of insurance inclusion by testing an integrated moderated-mediation model, grounded in the Theory of Reasoned Action and the attitude–intention–behaviour logic of the Theory of Planned Behaviour, in which financial and insurance literacy operate through trust, perceived benefit, and attitude, with perceived risk and digital literacy as boundary conditions. Survey data from 353 respondents in Uzbekistan’s Syrdarya region were analysed using partial least squares structural equation modelling. Insurance literacy strongly shaped trust in insurers and perceived benefit, whereas general financial literacy exerted only a weak indirect influence; these beliefs formed favourable attitudes associated with purchase intention and, ultimately, with self-reported insurance inclusion. All direct and mediating paths were supported, and the model explained 59% of the variance in inclusion. Perceived risk played a dual role, directly motivating purchase intention while weakening the attitude–intention link; digital literacy did not moderate the intention–inclusion relationship. Multi-group analysis showed the model largely invariant across demographic subgroups. Insurance literacy and the beliefs it fosters emerge as the strongest behavioural correlates of insurance inclusion in this regional setting.