PQOD · ART-01 — Policy Quantum-Operator Dynamics: A Preregistered Framework for Steering Public Policies as Dynamical Systems — Method, Three Field Audits, and Lessons from Refutation

Transversal method article of the PQOD programme (series « PQOD », ART-01), September 2026 — RESTRICTED ACCESS (intellectual property being secured). Policy Quantum-Operator Dynamics audits a public policy as a dynamical system rather than a photograph: a documented response chain, a preregistered state space with a frozen lock threshold, a transition operator estimated on real administrative data, bootstrap propagation over 10,000 replicates delivering a lock probability at a declared horizon under a mechanical verdict rule, backtest validation at 12 and 24 months, and rectification forcings translated into annual doses and physical flows. The framework is specified formally (10 definitions, 5 propositions, 7 numbered equations, Algorithm 1) and instantiated in three preregistered field audits run under identical discipline: EU critical raw materials (nickel lock P=0.80 [0.79; 0.84], conclusive; robust rectification 4.77 points/yr ≈ 10,600 t Ni/yr ≈ €18.8 M/yr), France's policy against gender-based violence (disclosure lock P=0.229 [0.005; 0.755], probable; dose 2.80 points/yr ≈ 10,037 additionally disclosed victims/yr), and EU asylum and return (enforcement lock P=0.360 [0.123; 0.683], probable; dose 3.59 points/yr ≈ 17,470 additional enforced returns/yr). A Lakatosian self-assessment reports the programme's own refutations with the same precision as its confirmations — the spectral delay predictor, refuted in three consecutive campaigns, is permanently abandoned. Verification, validation and uncertainty quantification follow Thacker et al. (2004) and Roy & Oberkampf (2011). Frozen seeds 20260906 / 20260915; all figures reproducible from sourced public data. Companion deposits: 10.5281/zenodo.22649658 (critical raw materials), 10.5281/zenodo.22775476 (gender-based violence, embargoed until 2027-09-15), 10.5281/zenodo.22780199 (asylum and return, embargoed until 2027-09-16).