Modeling the Impact of Organizational Change: A Bayesian Network Approach

Bayesian networks offer a mechanism for diagnosing the key changes necessary for system improvement and for predicting the impacts of potential change actions. A review of the fundamentals of Bayesian networks is presented, with a discussion of strengths and weaknesses. A model is constructed to assess the impact of potential changes in the decision-making process of a large global manufacturing organization. The procedure for building a network structure, estimating conditional probabilities, assessing internal consistency, and conducting probabilistic inference are provided by the application.