Identifying the drivers of critical material demand from electric vehicles in China

The rapid development of Electric Vehicles (EVs) boosted critical material demand. However, the contributions of various EV characteristics to this remain insufficiently understood. To fill this gap, this study characterizes vehicle sales, segment mix, battery capacity, and battery chemistry mix of electric passenger and commercial vehicles across China’s 337 prefecture-level cities during 2018–2025, and develops a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index framework to quantify the contributions of these factors to total material demand and those of the non-sales factors to per-vehicle demand. Results show that sales growth was the dominant driver of total material demand across most conditions. In passenger vehicles, the transition toward lithium iron phosphate batteries substantially reduced cobalt and nickel demand but increased phosphorus and copper demand, while shifts toward larger segments partly offset the benefits. In commercial vehicles, variations in per-vehicle lithium use were primarily driven by changes in segment mix, reflecting heterogeneous electrification rates across different operational contexts. These findings highlight the importance of carefully evaluating battery chemistry trade-offs alongside avoiding vehicle upsizing when developing strategies to manage critical material demand.