Reformism and Radicalism among Peasants: An Empirical Test of Paige's Agrarian Revolution

This study tests a well-known and widely accepted theory of agrarian revolution (Paige 1975) using data that precisely fit the categorization scheme upon which Paige's model rests. In an effort to hold constant the influences of the state and to focus upon the structural variables that Paige says are determinant, the study draws upon data on peasant political attitudes and behaviors in a single country, Costa Rica. The findings suggest serious limitations to the predictions derived from the theory. Although our tests sometimes show Paige's variables to be statistically significant and his predictions to be correct, more often than not his predictions are in the wrong direction or not significant at all. We explore other variables that aid in explaining the relevant political attitudes and compare their predictive power to that of Paige' s structural variables. We conclude that the Paige model is underspecified and that a more accurate model needs to account for these other variables as well as for the influence of the national state.