Quantifying the changes and driving factors of thermokarst hazards in the Hoh Xil region of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Thermokarst landforms (thermokarst lakes (TLs), retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS)) are key indicators of permafrost degradation, yet their spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms in fragile alpine ecosystems like Hoh Xil remain poorly quantified. This study systematically analyzed the area and abundance changes of thermokarst hazards. GeoDetector models were employed to quantify the relative influence of environmental factors on the spatial distribution and expansion rates of these hazards. Results show that (a) TLs and RTS abundance and area show a marked increase in Hoh Xil; (b) Precipitation has the highest q-value for both TL and RTS spatial distribution (q = 0.0344 for RTS abundance, p < 0.001). Secondary factors include mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and ice content, which influence TLs abundance; for RTS, clay content (q = 0.0271) and soil moisture (q = 0.0271) exert strong secondary effects on their abundance and density, respectively; c) Ice content (q = 0.0266), thaw index change rate (DDT_rate, q = 0.0254), and precipitation change rate (Precipt_rate, q = 0.0230) are key factors driving the growth of TLs. For the areal expansion rate of RTS, precipitation (q = 0.1124) and soil moisture (q = 0.1059) exert the strongest influences. This indicates that no single factor can strongly govern the spatial pattern of thermokarst hazards at the regional grid scale of the Hoh Xil study area. These findings highlight the complex feedbacks between climate warming and permafrost degradation, offering critical insights into predicting the future impacts of thermokarst hazards on carbon cycling and infrastructure in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.