Spatial structure of land value potential after land consolidation using spatial econometric modelling

Land consolidation (LC) is a widely adopted land management instrument for improving agricultural efficiency through parcel restructuring and reducing land fragmentation. However, how LC reshapes the spatial distribution of land value remains insufficiently understood. This study investigates the spatial determinants of post-consolidation land value potential (LVP) using parcel-level data from an agricultural LC project in Türkiye. The analysis examines the effects of changes in parcel compactness (ΔCI), fragmentation, and pre-consolidation LVP within a spatial econometric framework. The average LVP increased from 0.491 before LC to 0.737 after LC, representing an improvement of approximately 50%. OLS residuals exhibited significant spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I = 0.198, p < 0.001), confirming that conventional regression was inadequate. Model comparison identified the Spatial Error Model (SEM) as the most appropriate specification (AIC=-510.51), indicating that post-consolidation LVP is primarily influenced by spatially structured contextual factors rather than direct parcel-to-parcel interactions. The findings demonstrate that LC reshapes rather than eliminates inherited spatial value structures and highlight the importance of accounting for spatial dependence when evaluating rural land management interventions. Methodologically, the study provides a reproducible spatial econometric framework that can support more robust and equitable evaluations of LC programmes.