Contribution of land use/land cover changes to CO 2 emissions across Köppen classified climatic zones in South Asia (India)

The land use, land-use changes, and forestry (LULUCF) sector plays a significant role in increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the current climate change scenario. The present study assessed the long-term CO2 emissions within the LULUCF sectors across India’s climatic zones as described by Köppen. The continuous combustion of fossil fuels has led to a rise in CO2 levels by 53 parts per million (ppm), increasing from 372 to 425 ppm in the Indian region between 2002 to 2022. The investigation reveals a consistent upward trend in CO2 levels across Köppen climatic zones. The semi-arid (steppe) climate zone shows an increasing trend of 2.18 ppm year−1, whereas Tundra exhibits a trend of 2.32 ppm year−1. The rate of change of atmospheric CO2 for India is 2.20 ppm year−1. A regional correlation exists between CO2 concentration and elevated anthropogenic emissions activities in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). Settlements growth has occurred across various climatic zones, with the Subtropical Highland zone showing the most significant rise at 54.84%. The findings underscore the urgent requirement for sustainable land use practices. This study utilized multivariate linear regression analysis to investigate different CO2 sources across LULUCF classes, using these as independent variables within Köppen climatic zones. The evaluation focused on identifying the classes with the highest and lowest contributions to CO2 emissions throughout the study period. Further training was carried out on different models for India as a whole and by climatic zone, revealing that the settlement class is a significant source of CO2 emission. In contrast, the forest class acts as a substantial sink for CO2.