The future of mine migrancy in the context of broader trends in migration in Southern Africa

The migration issue in Southern Africa has generally been seen as relevant in discussion about future regional economic cooperation in two main ways. First, the new democratic government's attitude to legal migration, particularly, but not only, to the mining industry, has been seen as a litmus test of real commitment to ‘reconstructing regional relations on new lines’. Second, the prospect of escalating clandestine migration has been seen as a real or potential threat underscoring the need for an equitable and mutually beneficial programme of regional economic cooperation. The discussion has, however, often proceeded as though the two aspects — legal and clandestine migration — operated in separate compartments without implications for each other. This paper examines recent trends in mine migrancy against the context of broader trends in clandestine or illegal migration to South Africa. It suggests that there are processes at work likely to result in a reduction in employment of citizens of neighbouring countries in the South African mining industry, and warns that there could well be a multiplier at work in which each job lost by a mineworker could create pressures for more than one family member to migrate clandestinely, unless regional cooperation programmes are able to promote economic growth and employment throughout the Southern African region.