Fitness of insularia morphs of the peppered moth Biston betularia

In recent years the industrial melanic carbonariamorph in the moth Biston betularia (L.) has decreased rapidly in frequency in Britain as air pollution has decreased. The intermediate melanic insularia has shown a variable response. We have estimated the fitness of insularia, compared with the other two morphs, for several data sets. As a rule its fitness lies between that of carbonaria and typical, but nearer to typical and sometimes very close to it. The intermediate position is expected if fitness relates directly to phenotype. The results suggest that insularia may continue polymorphic while carbonaria is likely to disappear. The past high frequency of insularia in South Wales may have been due to an initial increase in insularia frequency before carbonaria reached the region. Differences in dynamics of frequency change in insularia and carbonaria are evidence against induction, which has sometimes been invoked to explain the spread of melanism in this species.