Circular Economy in a Multi-Speed Europe: Cluster Evidence from EU Member States

The transition towards a circular economy is increasingly important for reducing resource dependency, waste generation and environmental pressures across the European Union. However, Member States differ substantially in their capacity to develop circular production and consumption systems. While some countries achieve high recycling rates, these improvements are not always accompanied by stronger resource productivity, lower material consumption or higher circular material use. The aim of this paper is to examine changes in circular economy performance across the EU-27 between 2014 and 2023. The analysis uses Eurostat data and nine indicators covering circular economy employment, investment and value added, material consumption, resource productivity, municipal waste generation, recycling performance and circular material use. Hierarchical cluster analysis based on Ward’s method and squared Euclidean distance was applied separately for both years. The results identify four distinct country profiles in 2014 and 2023, confirming persistent differences in circular economy development across the European Union. The findings show that circular economy progress remains uneven and that improved recycling performance alone does not guarantee a comprehensive transition towards circularity. Stronger investment, resource efficiency and material recirculation are needed to support more balanced circular economy development.