Inferring within-herd transmission parameters for African swine fever virus using mortality data from outbreaks in the Russian Federation

Figures

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  Figure 1. Dynamics of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in nine pig herds in the Russian Federation. Each column shows the predicted number of susceptible (S, cyan), exposed (E, magenta), infectious (I, red) and dead pigs (D, blue), respectively, as well as the observed number of dead pigs. Predicted dynamics are shown as the median (solid black line), 25th and 75th percentiles (dashed black lines) and five percentile bands (up to the 5th and 95th percentiles; shading). Observed daily mortalities are shown as black circles (last column). The grey shaded area indicates the observation period for the mortality data, and the black dotted line indicates the day on which ASFV was confirmed in the herd. Results are based on 1,000 replicates of the model sampling from the joint posterior distribution assuming informative priors for all parameters

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  Figure 2. Transmission parameters for African swine fever virus (ASFV) inferred using mortality data for nine pig herds in the Russian Federation with confirmed outbreaks of ASFV. Plots show the marginal posterior distributions for the parameters for each herd: (a) basic reproduction number (R 0); (b) transmission rate (β); (c) mean latent period (μE); (d) shape parameter for latent period (kE); (e) mean infectious period (μI); (f) shape parameter for infectious period (kI); (g) natural mortality rate (rM); and (h) time of introduction (t intro). The violin plots show the posterior density (shape), median (circle) and interquartile range (line) for the parameter (column) for the parameter. The dashed and dotted lines indicate the mean and 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles, respectively, for the informative prior distribution used for the parameter