Atypical Ductal Hyperplasia of the Breast on Core Needle Biopsy: Risk of Malignant Upgrade On Surgical Excision

PURPOSE: This study identified factors predicting malignant upgrade for atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) diagnosed on core-needle biopsy (CNB) and developed a nomogram to facilitate evidence-based decision making. METHODS: This retrospective analysis included women diagnosed with ADH at the National Cancer Centre Singapore (NCCS) in 2010-2015. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify clinical, radiological, and histological factors associated with malignant upgrade. A nomogram was constructed using variables with the strongest associations in multivariate analysis. Multivariable logistic regression coefficients were used to estimate the predicted probability of upgrade for each factor combination. RESULTS: 0.002) remained significant in multivariate analysis and were included in the nomogram. CONCLUSION: Our model provided good discrimination of breast cancer risk prediction (C-statistic of 0.81; 95% CI, 0.74-0.88) and selected for a subset of women at low risk (2.1%) of malignant upgrade, who may avoid surgical excision following a CNB diagnosis of ADH.