A Prognostic Model to Predict Clinical Outcomes with First-Line Gemcitabine-Based Chemotherapy in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to devise a prognostic model for advanced pancreatic cancer based on clinical parameters. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 298 patients who received gemcitabine-based chemotherapy from January 1999 to November 2008. RESULTS: The median survival of all patients was 7 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 6.2-7.8]. Multivariate analysis revealed poor prognostic factors for overall survival such as the presence of liver metastasis [p < 0.001, hazard ratio (HR) 2.628, 95% CI 1.620-4.264], the presence of ascites or peritoneal carcinomatosis (p = 0.005, HR 1.783, 95% CI 1.194-2.661), serum C-reactive protein levels >1.2 mg/dl (p = 0.021, HR 1.568, 95% CI 1.070-2.300), and serum albumin levels <3.5 g/dl (p = 0.021, HR 1.701, 95% CI 1.085-2.667). Of 298 patients, 168 patients (56.4%) were categorized as low-risk with 0 or 1 risk factor, 80 patients (26.8%) were categorized as intermediate-risk with 2 risk factors, and 50 patients (16.8%) were categorized as high-risk with 3 or 4 risk factors. The median survival duration for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups was 10.0 months (95% CI 8.7-11.3), 6.7 months (95% CI 5.7-7.7), and 4.4 months (95% CI 3.2-5.6), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This prognostic model could help to select treatment for patients in clinical practice, and these risk-adapted treatment strategies should be further investigated in prospective studies in such patient populations.