Near real-time felt earthquakes loss simulation

On January 24, 2024, an earthquake with mb=4.3 occurred near Krasnodar, causing a macroseismic effect. The GIS “Extremum” models were used for simulation possible intensities and expected damage to the infrastructure. Good agreement between calculated and observed values of I=4 on the MSK-64 scale was obtained. This result was achieved through the using of calibrated models of seismic intensity attenuation. The overestimation of the calculated values of I=3 can be associated with both the limited observation data and the deficiencies in calibration for low values of the seismic intensity. The obtained near real time estimations of felt earthquakes consequences can be integrated into “Automated Information and Control System of the RSChS” (AICS RSChS) and provide the information for heads of executive departments and agencies in order to develop and implement measures aimed at population safety.