Risk Classification for Progression to Subfoveal Geographic Atrophy in Dry Age-Related Macular Degeneration Using Machine Learning–Enabled Outer Retinal Feature Extraction

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the utility of spectral-domain optical coherence tomography biomarkers to predict the development of subfoveal geographic atrophy (sfGA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort analysis including 137 individuals with dry age-related macular degeneration without sfGA with 5 years of follow-up. Multiple spectral-domain optical coherence tomography quantitative metrics were generated, including ellipsoid zone (EZ) integrity and subretinal pigment epithelium (sub-RPE) compartment features. RESULTS: Reduced mean EZ-RPE central subfield thickness and increased sub-RPE compartment thickness were significantly different between sfGA convertors and nonconvertors at baseline in both 2-year and 5-year sfGA risk assessment. Longitudinal change assessment showed a significantly higher degradation of EZ integrity in sfGA convertors. The predictive performance of a machine learning classification model based on 5-year and 2-year risk conversion to sfGA demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 ± 0.06 and 0.96 ± 0.04, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Quantitative outer retinal and sub-RPE feature assessment using a machine learning–enabled retinal segmentation platform provides multiple parameters that are associated with progression to sfGA. [ Ophthalmic Surg Lasers Imaging . 2022;53:31–39.]