O1–02–01: Forecasting the global prevalence and burden of Alzheimer's disease

As the world population ages, additional resources will be required to adequately care for persons afflicted with Alzheimer's disease. Research is underway to develop interventions which both delay disease onset and slow disease progression. The goal was to forecast the global burden of Alzheimer's disease and evaluate the potential impact of interventions that delay disease onset or progression. A stochastic multi-state model was used in conjunction with United Nations' worldwide population forecasts and data from epidemiological studies on the incidence and mortality of Alzheimer's disease. In 2006, the worldwide prevalence of Alzheimer's disease was 26.6 million. Prevalence will quadruple by 2050, where worldwide 1 in 85 persons will be living with the disease. About 43% of prevalent cases are estimated to need a high level of care equivalent to that of a nursing home. Interventions that delay both disease onset and progression by a modest 1 year, would result in nearly 9.2 million fewer cases in 2050 with nearly all the decline attributable to decreases in persons requiring a high level of care. A global epidemic of Alzheimer's disease is on the horizon. Modest advances in therapeutic and preventive strategies that lead to even small delays in Alzheimer's disease onset and progression can significantly reduce the global burden of the disease.