Earthquake Forecasting and Earthquake Prediction: Different Approaches for Obtaining the Best Model

Research Article| May 01, 2011 Earthquake Forecasting and Earthquake Prediction: Different Approaches for Obtaining the Best Model Warner Marzocchi; Warner Marzocchi Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Via di Vigna Murata 605 000143 Rome, Italy warner.marzocchi@ingv.it (W. M.) 1Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar J. Douglas Zechar J. Douglas Zechar Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Via di Vigna Murata 605 000143 Rome, Italy warner.marzocchi@ingv.it (W. M.) 2Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland 3Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Seismological Research Letters (2011) 82 (3): 442–448. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.82.3.442 Article history first online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Warner Marzocchi, J. Douglas Zechar; Earthquake Forecasting and Earthquake Prediction: Different Approaches for Obtaining the Best Model. Seismological Research Letters 2011;; 82 (3): 442–448. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.82.3.442 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search We consider the general problem of constructing or selecting the "best" earthquake forecast/prediction model. While many researchers have presented technical methods for solving this problem, the practical and philosophical dimensions are scarcely treated in the scientific literature, and we wish to emphasize these aspects here. Of particular interest are the marked differences between approaches used to build long-term earthquake rupture forecasts and those used to conduct systematic earthquake predictability experiments. Our aim is to clarify the different approaches, and we suggest that these differences, while perhaps not intuitive, are understandable and appropriate for their specific goals. We note that what... You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.