Modeling CD4+ Cell Count Increase Over a Six-Year Period in HIV-1–Infected Patients on Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Senegal

To assess the extents and determinants of long-term CD4 cell increases after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART), changes in CD4 cell counts were analyzed in a cohort of HIV-1-infected Senegalese using a mixed-effects model. After a median follow-up of 54 months, an average of 483 CD4 cells/mm3 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 331; 680) was reached. The average asymptote level was approximately 421 cells/mm3 (95% CI = 390; 454) in patients with < 200 cells/mm3 at baseline and approximately 500 cells/mm3 in patients with > 200 cells/mm3. The independent predictors of long-term CD4 cell reconstitution were the baseline CD4 cell count and the monthly average viral load over the entire follow-up. This good long-term immune reconstitution, optimal in subjects with low average viral loads and > 200 CD4 cells/mm3 at baseline, argues in favor of the earliest possible access to ART and underlines the importance of strict compliance with the treatment.