Relating Ctenophore Population to Water Mass Indices in the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Ecosystem

Ctenophores exist throughout the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Ecosystem, but the underlying mechanisms that control ctenophore populations at this scale are not clear. Ctenophore population data over the last 30 years coincides with changes in several water masses on the shelf, but discovering which water mass was most influential was problematic without mechanistic clarity. This paper strives to identify the relationship between oceanography and ctenophore populations over the last 30 years. Using a numerical modeling approach, we found a strong relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation index, percent Labrador Subarctic Slope Water, and ctenophore population. We suggest these results might inform future efforts to develop a predictive capability for major changes in ctenophore population.