Model for Predicting Floods due to Earthen Dam Breaching. I: Formulation and Evaluation

This paper proposes a dam-breach model which predicts, in a simple but physically based manner, not only the peak discharge but the whole outflow hydrograph and breach development. The following aspects are taken into account: the geometry of the embankment, the shape of the reservoir, the hydraulic characteristics of the flow through the breach and its erosive capacity, and the shape of the breach. The model needs only one calibration parameter and can be easily applied to real cases. The application of the model with a single value of the calibration parameter produced excellent results in the simulation of 12 historic earthfill dam failures, with a discharge range covering three orders of magnitude.