Key result
Random forest classifier predicts operating theater length of stay with ~91% accuracy.
Why the study?
Inefficient scheduling increases operating theater length of stay and risks adverse outcomes, requiring exploration of time intervals in surgical patient flow.
Cross-Sectional (n=622)
No
Machine learning classifiers can accurately predict operating theater length of stay to improve scheduling and prevent stagnated patient flow.
ML classifiers may flag long-stay surgical patients; leaves open whether incorporating procedure type and recovery data improves theater scheduling.
Inefficient scheduling increases the length of stay in an operating theater and the risk of adverse health outcomes for surgical patients, and can cause resource allocation mismatch. We conducted this study to explore the time intervals associated with the operating theater of a general hospital. In a cross-sectional study, data from 622 patients undergoing elective surgery were collected. We measured entrance and exit times into and from the locations in the theater, and also the start and end times for each procedure including surgery and anesthesia. Then we used statistical, machine learning, and visualization techniques to explore the time interval data for seven surgical categories. In our data, women were older and experienced more surgery and recovery time than men. For ophthalmic and urology surgeries the time spent in the recovery room, and for neurosurgery and plastic surgery the duration of surgery, constituted the largest percentage of the stay. A random forest classifier recognized patients with potential short, medium, and long stay in the operating theater (accuracy = 0.91). Our data suggested that the staff habitually assign less priority to the cases with easier surgical procedures and short surgery and recovery time. This caused the formation of an unwritten schedule which interfered with the official one. The differences in surgery types and recovery time can be used to prevent stagnated patient flow in the daily scheduling of an operating theater. Accurate classifiers which include patient characteristics and surgical variables enable staff to recognize patients with a potential long stay in the operating theater.
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Moghaddam et al. (2020) conducted a cross-sectional in Elective surgery (n=622). Patient characteristics and surgical variables was evaluated on Length of stay in the operating theater (Accuracy 0.91). A random forest classifier using patient characteristics and surgical variables recognized patients with potential short, medium, and long stay in the operating theater with an accuracy of 0.91.
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