Unexpected spatial patterns in an insect outbreak match a predator diffusion model

An outbreak of the western tussock moth ( Orgyia vetusta) with a sharp spatial boundary has been hypothesized to be the result of an interaction with mobile parasitoids. We report here a striking correspondence between the qualitative prediction of a general model for a mobile predator and a sessile prey and initial observations of the outbreak of western tussock moth. The model makes the counterintuitive prediction that the prey species will have its highest population density at the edge of an outbreak, which corresponds to observations made of the western tussock moth. This is a striking pattern which should be looked for in other population systems.