Many losers and a few winners: The impact of COVID‐19 on Canadian industries and regions

COVID‐19 has affected all industrial sectors and regions of the world and, in many cases, the impact has been devastating. Nevertheless, there are large differences across sectors and regions, with a few winners as well as many losers. This paper assesses the impact of the first wave of the virus on Canadian industries and provinces in the short and medium run. In particular, time series forecasting models for 39 three‐digit industries in each of the 10 provinces are estimated and used to predict post‐lockdown losses: percentage differences between forecast and observed economic activity. Econometric analysis of the estimates is then used to quantify and rank industries and provinces in terms of short‐ and medium‐term losses and gains. Provincial ranks are then compared with the stringency of provincial economic restrictions.