Impact of social violence on mining global value chains in Africa

This study examines how social violence, a major constraint to economic development in resource-rich African countries, shapes their participation in global value chains (GVCs) in the mining sector. Combining disaggregated indicators of forward, backward, and mixed mining GVC participation with conflict data from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) for 51 African countries over the period 1997–2022, we analyze how violence affects the structure of GVC integration. Findings show that social violence is associated with a reallocation toward down-stream, export-oriented participation, and adversely affects upstream and mixed forms of integration. These effects, however, are strongly conditional on structural factors. Attacks targeting transport infrastructure and inward foreign direct investment in violent contexts reinforce export-oriented integration, whereas greater reliance on renewable energy helps mitigate the adverse effects on segments requiring stable energy supply and coordination. Overall, the results indicate that higher GVC participation under violent conditions reflects constrained specialization rather than productive upgrading, underscoring the role of infrastructure security and energy resilience in fostering sustainable mining development in Africa.