Beyond Linear Models: A Complexity-Theoretic Approach to Understanding Tourist Behavior in Peacebuilding Contexts

Tourism’s potential as a peacebuilding tool in conflict-affected regions remains intertwined with complex psychosocial factors. This study transcends traditional linear models by integrating the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), Social Exchange Theory (SET), and Complexity Theory (CT) to examine the drivers influencing tourist participation in peacebuilding activities. Employing a dual-method approach, Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) is used to explore direct and indirect pathways between empathy, perceived social norms, and attitudes. At the same time, Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) identifies non-linear relationships among key variables. The findings from PLS-SEM highlight emotional empathy and social norms as significant catalysts for behavioral intentions, while perceived barriers deter engagement, and fsQCA reveals multiple causal pathways leading to high engagement, emphasizing the interaction of emotional and contextual factors. This multi-method analysis enriches our understanding of peacebuilding tourism by uncovering both linear and complex patterns of causality. Theoretical implications suggest that tourism can serve as an effective peacebuilding mechanism, while practical insights guide the design of interventions that leverage emotional and normative factors to promote peace in conflict-laden regions.