Estimating the annual supply potential and availability of timber and logging residue using forest management records of the Tochigi prefecture, Japan

We used forest management records to estimate the annual supply potential and availability of timber and logging residue from profitable subcompartments for all the cities and towns in the Tochigi prefecture. Five log markets and three factories in the Tochigi prefecture were assumed to be the destination of timber and logging residue, and the forest operation systems were set on the basis of interviews with forestry cooperative officials. The results showed that the annual supply potential of timber and logging residue was 450,304 m3 and 549,957 tons, of which 6 % (26,304 m3) and 37 % (204,122 tons) were from precommercial thinning operations, 61 % (276,180 m3) and 50 % (276,276 tons) were from commercial thinning operations, and 33 % (147,820 m3) and 13 % (69,559 tons) were from final-felling operations, respectively. When the unit price of the logging residue was 10,000 yen/ton, the annual logging residue availability from profitable subcompartments could almost cover the annual demand of the three facilities that we considered in this study. Introduction of feed-in tariffs had a significant impact. However, the ratios of the availability to supply potential with unit prices of logging residue of 3,000, 6,000, and 10,000 yen/ton were estimated to be only 1.67, 2.06, and 4.09 %, respectively. Considering the subsidies, the ratios respectively increased to 5.79, 7.35, and 13.09 %. Furthermore, the annual logging residue availability with subsidy could meet 70 % of the annual woody biomass demand of the large-scale factory in Sano city, which is 100,000 tons.