In the original Bitcoin paper and other research papers since, it is assumed that Bitcoin blocks are mined at the instants of a homogeneous Poisson process. Based on blockchain block arrival data and stochastic analysis of the block arrival process, we demonstrate that this is not the case. We present a framework for studying the block arrival process, including two refined mathematical models for block arrivals, determined by combining models for a period of constant difficulty and how the difficulty evolves over time.
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Bowden et al. (2020) studied this question.
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