Climate change-induced habitat dynamics of threatened medicinal trees in Central Indian tropical forests

Climate change is a serious challenge to the sustainability of bioresources due to increased pressure on their survival. A group of already threatened lesser-known trees (Achar, Aonla, Arjun, Bija, Harra, Katira, Kullu, Maidalakdi, Patala, Pilu, Salai, Shyonak, and Varuna), possessing socioeconomic value and associated with the health of indigenous communities, are continuously used in the tropical forests of central India. Yet there is a lack of information on the impact of climate change on this valuable group of trees. Therefore, we examined the habitat suitability, assessed the growing stock and evaluated future dynamics. MaxEnt habitat suitability modelling was adopted to project potential distribution and population estimation in current and future scenarios. Global Circulation Models (HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL, MIROC6 and GISS-E2–1-G) were also used to assess the dynamics of stable and unstable habitats under moderate (SSP245) and extreme (SSP585) emission conditions. Model evaluators showed very good prediction strength (AUC: 0.790 – 0.957 and CBI: 0.469 – 0.993) except a weak Varuna. Vital variables controlling the niche were Mean diurnal range of temperature, Precipitation seasonality and Isothermality. Future projections of habitat showed net loss of 0.04–4.6% in some species and net gain of 0.7–16.8% in others with exceptions. There was a vectoral and spatial shift in suitable areas in the future. Corresponding to suitable habitat changes the estimated growing stock also decreased and increased. The data generated in the study could be useful in creating long-term multispecies conservation reserves and increasing growing stock. Adoption of agroforestry practices may aid in sustainability achievement.