Exports, economic growth and exogeneity: Taiwan 1953-88

The econometric techniques developed by Engle and Hendry (1993) are used to examine empirically the exogeneity status of the real export growth variable in a commonly used output growth equation. Data from Taiwan shows that, while the weak exogeneity assumption appears to be valid, the super exogeneity assumption is rejected. Thus, the results cast doubt on policy recommendations based on the export-led growth hypothesis.