Backward-in-time methods to simulate large-scale transport and mixing in the ocean

In oceanography and meteorology, it is important to know not only where water or air masses are headed for, but also where they came from as well. For example, it is important to find unknown sources of oil spills in the ocean and of dangerous substance plumes in the atmosphere. It is impossible with the help of conventional ocean and atmospheric numerical circulation models to extrapolate backward from the observed plumes to find the source because those models cannot be reversed in time. We review here recently elaborated backward-in-time numerical methods to identify and study mesoscale eddies in the ocean and to compute where those waters came from to a given area. The area under study is populated with a large number of artificial tracers that are advected backward in time in a given velocity field that is supposed to be known analytically or numerically, or from satellite and radar measurements. After integrating advection equations, one gets positions of each tracer on a fixed day in the past and can identify from known destinations a particle positions at earlier times. The results provided show that the method is efficient, for example, in estimating probabilities to find increased concentrations of radionuclides and other pollutants in oceanic mesoscale eddies. The backward-in-time methods are illustrated in this paper with a few examples. Backward-in-time Lagrangian maps are applied to identify eddies in satellite-derived and numerically generated velocity fields and to document the pathways by which they exchange water with their surroundings. Backward-in-time trapping maps are used to identify mesoscale eddies in the altimetric velocity field with a risk to be contaminated by Fukushima-derived radionuclides. The results of simulations are compared with in situ mesurement of caesium concentration in sea water samples collected in a recent research vessel cruise in the area to the east of Japan. Backward-in-time latitudinal maps and the corresponding material-line techniques are applied to document transport of water masses across strong currents. Backward-in-time drift maps are shown to be useful in identifying the Lagrangian fronts favorable for fishery.