Sedimentation in Reservoirs: Evaluation of Return Periods Related to Operational Failures of Water Supply Reservoirs with Monte Carlo Simulation

Sediment delivery to reservoirs causes a reduction in storage capacity, leading to emergency water conditions and difficulties in managing water resources and dams, especially on dry land. This paper presents a methodology for calculating the time period of sedimentation-induced operational failures of a water supply dam, based on the reservoir’s daily water balance equation. The method applies a shot noise stochastic model to generate daily streamflow data calibrated with historical data, and accounts for sedimentation rates and the water volumes supplied to users. A Monte Carlo simulation was employed to generate different combinations of inflow and water supply release scenarios. The proposed methodology, which is completely generalizable, was applied in a case study of the Camastra reservoir in southern Italy. The results were in good agreement with the reservoir’s historical operational data.