Analysis of Mpox intervention measures in presence of environmental transmission pathway using data from DRC

This paper develops a mathematical model for Mpox transmission dynamics accounting for disease transmission through interpersonal contact as well as from microbes infested environment. The endemic equilibrium of the model was evaluated for two cases. (1) When it is assumed that the microbes in the environment play no role in the spread of the disease, and it was shown that the endemic equilibrium is unique, exists when ℛ 0 is greater than unity, and is globally asymptotically stable. (2) For the case when environmental microbes concentration plays a role in disease transmission, the model was shown to possibly exhibit backward bifurcation at ℛ 0 . This indicates that lowering ℛ 0 below 1 may not eliminate Mpox when the disease is already endemic, due to the stable endemic equilibrium. Numerical results, based on outbreak data from the DRC indicate that; (1) increased interpersonal contact has the potential of making the disease worse, (2) high isolation rate and accelerated recovery of infected individuals through any possible intervention can easily contain the disease. The results further show that environmental contamination does not substantially influence disease transmission rates. More still, it is observed that implementation of influential mitigation measures results in lower and delayed peaks of the number of infected. This is essential for healthcare systems to prepare for more emergency cases and isolation facilities when needed most especially in under resourced communities or countries. Our findings highlight the need for comprehensive interventions addressing both behavioural and environmental factors, especially in environments with limited resources.