When culture meets cadre rotation: The impact of cultural mismatch on officials’ promotion and market reform in China

This paper investigates how cultural conflicts between migrant officials and host cities affect promotion and marketization in China. Using panel data from 346 cities (2000-2017), we find asymmetric effects: southern officials assigned to northern cities face reduced promotion prospects, whereas northern officials serving in the south experience enhanced career advancement. These conflicts shape marketization outcomes through promotion expectations—optimistic expectations among southbound officials mitigate potential negative effects, while pessimistic expectations among northbound officials offset their otherwise pro-marketization influence. The results underscore the importance of cultural fit in governance and its implications for political incentives and economic development in transitional economies.