Forecasting model for water-energy nexus in Alberta, Canada

• Water demand profiles for the energy sector in Alberta were developed. • Pathways with intensive water demand in Alberta were identified. • Results of historical water demand were verified from the earlier reports. • Sensitivity analysis was conducted to study the effects of technology improvement. • The impact of production changes on water demand was evaluated. Water demand coefficients and energy projections were set for Alberta province in Canada. A data-intensive model is structured to combine the gathered data to cover primary fuels and electricity generation pathways in Alberta. Profiles of historical and forecasted water demand for the energy sector in Alberta were developed in terms of total amounts of water consumption and water withdrawals to cover the time horizon from 2009 to 2030. The results were verified and showed that total water consumption for primary fuels in Alberta during 2009 was 358 million m 3 with an average annual growth rate of 9%. The total water consumption for electricity generation in Alberta was 171 million m 3 in 2009 and grows at an average rate of 4% per year. Sensitivity analysis shows that improvement by 1% in water consumption coefficient or reduction in expected production of ethanol from wheat will save annually for Alberta on average about 4.3 million m 3 of water. The same sensitivity factor of 1% was applied to electricity generation pathways and 1.5 million m 3 of water per year could be saved in consumption through a pathway of the natural gas combined cycle with cooling towers.