Prediction of the Surplus Rate of Rural Labor Force in Iran from 2012 to 2040

All social wealth in every society is engaged in production activities, which is the product of human labor and nature. Total rural labor force is about 4.5 million in Iran. According to statistics, the current working time of each rural labor force is less than 100 days each year. A large number of surplus rural labors seriously affected the growth of agricultural productivity and farmers’ income. Therefore, how to effectively estimate great number of surplus rural labor is very important for economic growth. In this paper, we assume that if the marginal revenue is different in various area of Iran’s economy, farmers seeking profit maximization will reach the better situation. We predict the surplus rate of rural labor force based on fitting and estimating ARIMA model by Eviews 6 software.