An evaluation of the application of mark–release–recapture models to assess foraging population sizes of subterranean termite colonies is presented. A combination of laboratory and field studies were used to examine the validity of 3 of the underlying assumptions, including persistence of dye marks (Nile Blue A), effect of dye mark on survivorship, and mix of marked and unmarked foragers within the interval between release and recapture in the eastern subterranean termites, Reticulitermes flavipes (Kollar), and R. virginicus (Banks). For both species, the percentage of individuals losing their dye marks when reared on a mixed wood diet was significantly higher than for termites reared on a filter paper diet for 27 d after marking (both treatments permitting limited exercise). There were considerable differences in dye loss between colonies within species. Mortality differences among dyed and undyed termites, although statistically significant, were relatively small and probably do not affect population size estimates derived from mark–release–recapture models. The movement of marked termites between equivalent food resources is unpredictable and contrary to the model assumption of marked termites fully mixing within the population within the interval between recaptures. A simulation is presented to investigate how variables such as dye loss, mortality, and probability of recapture affect accuracy of colony size estimates and their standard errors. The number of recaptures is a dominant factor driving the accuracy of the population estimates generated from these models, but the number of marked termites recaptured in proportion to population size is impossible to assess in field colonies because we do not know the true population size of the foraging colony. Data suggest that validity of mark–release–recapture results may be compromised by the fact that aspects of the biology of subterranean termites violate critical assumptions of the models. Forager population estimates generated by mark–release–recapture studies of subterranean termite colonies must therefore be interpreted with caution.
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Thorne et al. (1996) studied this question.