Stochastic analysis of rainfall effect on earthquake induced shallow landslide of Tandikat, West Sumatra, Indonesia

On September 30, 2009, extensive landslides occurred in Tandikat, Padang Pariaman Regency, West Sumatra Province, Indonesia, burying hundreds of people, and flattening some villages after a Mw 7.6 earthquake hit West Sumatra coast. The landslides occurred during rainfall, and originated on mountains mantled with loose pumice. The probability of concurrent earthquake and rainfall event in this area requires landslide hazard evaluation by considering the effect of the unfortunate combination of rainfalls and earthquakes. To evaluate the landslide hazard level, the term of specific volume ratio (RSV) was used as the ratio of displaced volume to the maximum volume per unit width that could collapse from the slope. Combined analysis of groundwater model and slope stability was utilized to determine the landslide hazard level. Stochastic analysis using Monte-Carlo method was implemented to deal with uncertainties in determining slope stability. The stochastic analysis of the Tandikat landslide confirms that smaller earthquakes could possibly trigger catastrophic landslides during rainfall. Smaller peak ground acceleration of approximately 0.15 g could result in a more than 60% chance of Rsv >0.75, while the analysis of dry condition yields a 30% chance of catastrophic level of landslide hazard. This suggests that rainfall condition increases the probability of catastrophic landslide. The stochastic analysis of the Tandikat landslide confirms that smaller earthquakes could possibly trigger catastrophic landslides during rainfall. The results also suggest that peak ground acceleration of approximately 0.3 g is considered as the critical magnitude of ground acceleration that could result in a nearly 100% probability of catastrophic level of landslide hazard in the area.