Systematic and random transitions of land-cover types in Burkina Faso, West Africa

In-depth statistical analysis of forest transition between land-cover types over time can reveal the dominant signals of landscape transformation, which are needed in order to develop appropriate land management strategies. We applied a recently developed methodology to analyse the transition matrix of six land-cover classes, derived from 1986 and 2002 Landsat images of an area of 15 675 km2 in southern Burkina Faso. Results show that most landscape transformations followed a systematic process. In addition, some transitions occurred as an apparently random process, probably caused by uncommon or sporadic events. Degradation of woodland to shrub-/grassland over 15.7% of the landscape, increases in biomass from woodland to dense forest on 10% of the landscape and conversion of 6% of the landscape from shrub-/grassland to cropland were the dominant signals of forest-cover transitions. From a planning perspective, the dominance of systematic processes should facilitate regional land-use planning and sustainable forest management in a context of immigration and agricultural intensification.