Key result
Japanese diabetes prevalence is projected to rise to ~18% in men but decline in women by 2040.
Population
Japanese population aged 40 years or older from the National Health and Nutrition Survey from 2003 to 2019
Comparison
Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling vs Conventional prediction models
Design
Other
Authors
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The prevalence and number of diabetes mellitus cases in Japan are projected to increase among men but decrease among women from 2020 to 2040.
Observational
The prevalence and number of diabetes mellitus cases in Japan are projected to increase among men but decrease among women from 2020 to 2040.
Mondal et al. (2026) conducted an observational in Diabetes mellitus. Age, period, and cohort effects was evaluated on Projected national-level DM prevalence and cases from 2020 to 2040. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus in Japan is projected to increase from 16.4% in 2020 to 18.1% in 2040 in men, while declining from 9.6% to 7.7% in women.
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