Quantitative risk assessment to guide the treatment of cesarean scar pregnancy

OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk-factor scoring system for the prediction of bleeding during ultrasound-guided dilation and curettage (D&C) for cesarean scar pregnancy (CSP). METHODS: The retrospective study included patients with a CSP of 31-67 days who underwent transabdominal ultrasonography-guided D&C in 2010-2014. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for the need of Foley catheter hemostasis. The predictive accuracy of a risk-scoring system based on significant factors was evaluated by receiver operating curve analysis. RESULTS: Among 82 included patients, 66 (80%) were successfully treated without any complications, whereas 16 (20%) required Foley catheter compression hemostasis. Four patients who received the Foley catheter needed further treatment. A longer pregnancy duration (odds ratio 1.171, 95% confidence interval 1.050-1.305; P=0.004) and a rich blood supply on ultrasonography (odds ratio 3.282, 95% confidence interval 1.441-4.742; P=0.005) were significant risk factors for the need of compression hemostasis. A scoring system based on these two risk factors would have identified 93.8% of patients requiring compression hemostasis if the optimum cutoff score was used. CONCLUSION: Heavy bleeding during transabdominal ultrasound-guided D&C for CSP is associated with a longer pregnancy duration and a rich blood supply on ultrasonography. The new risk-scoring system can be used to predict bleeding during surgery.