A comparison of modeling and statistical evaluation of hydrologic change

The U.S. Department of Agriculture Hydrograph Laboratory model of watershed hydrology is adapted for use on a research watershed where land use changed drastically as a result of reforestation and subsequent thinning. Eight years of measured runoff from a mature forest are used to estimate two of the model parameters; the remaining 39 are based on physical measurements. Model simulations properly evaluated both the magnitude and statistical significance of the hydrologic changes with much less data than were needed for standard statistical analyses.