Dynamical Downscaling of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in China under Current and Future Climates

Climate changes over China from the present (1996–2005) to the future (2046–2055) under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios are projected using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, version 3.7.1. The WRF model was driven by the Global 6-Hourly Bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5), Community Earth System Model dataset over China with a resolution of 30 km. The results demonstrate that WRF downscaling generally simulates more reliable spatial distributions of surface air temperature and precipitation in China with higher spatial pattern correlations and closer in magnitude to the Community Climate System Model, version 4.0, simulation results, especially near mountain ranges. The WRF projections for temperature and precipitation for the future under the two emission scenarios are compared with the present simulation. Generally stronger warming, both in mean temperature and extreme statistics, is produced by WRF-RCP8.5 than by WRF-RCP4.5. The projections for precipitation changes are more varied with season and region for both scenarios.