Capital Income and Growth Dynamics as Determinants of Income Distribution:Evidence from Kazakhstan

Given the high dependence of Kazakhstan's economy on capital-intensive industries, the importance of analyzing income distribution and the factors that determine the strengthening or weakening of economic inequality is increasing. The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamics of income distribution in Kazakhstan by comparing the rates of return on capital and economic growth. The research methodology is based on Piketty's conceptual framework and includes constructing integral indicators of return on capital (r-index) and economic growth (g-index) from normalized macroeconomic and industry indicators. The empirical base of the study comprises official statistical data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period 2010-2024. The results showed that in 11 of the 15 analyzed years, economic growth outpaced the return on capital (g > r), indicating a more balanced income distribution. During 2010-2016, the gap between the g-index and the r-index remained positive, peaking at +0.42, reflecting the dominance of economic growth over capital incomes. In 2017-2018 and in 2020. The return on capital exceeded economic growth, with the difference reaching -0.08, indicating an increase in income inequality and income concentration in capital-intensive sectors. The directions of future research relate to the possibility of using the r–g approach to monitor the distributional effects of macroeconomic policy, as well as to expanding the analysis at the regional level and including institutional factors of income redistribution.