Does green logistics encourage energy security and energy transition? Evidence from the worldwide database

This paper examines the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between green logistics frameworks and energy security across a global panel of 137 countries (2007–2023). Utilizing a Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) framework and a dynamic panel threshold model, we capture macro-systemic feedback loops and regime-dependent shifts across distinct energy security dimensions. Empirical results demonstrate that an initial positive shock to the Green Logistics Index triggers a persistent decline in overall energy security capability, stabilizing below baseline over a ten-period forecast horizon. Crucially, threshold analysis reveals structural asymmetries: below an optimal threshold, green logistics expansion actively enhances energy security development capability. Beyond this threshold, the effect turns negative, driven by infrastructure bottlenecks and high energy intensity during early-stage green transitions. Conversely, for energy affordability and energy security sustainability, the impact remains negative across both regimes; however, it weakens significantly post-threshold, signaling diminishing marginal returns to intensive logistics investments. Consequently, green logistics policies must be stage-specific, aligning logistics expansion with energy transition capabilities to optimize security outcomes and mitigate structural trade-offs.