Evolution of Recurrent Asthma Event Rate Over Time in Frailty Models

Summary To model the time evolution of the event rate in recurrent event data a crucial role is played by the timescale that is used. Depending on the timescale selected the interpretation of the time evolution will be entirely different, both in parametric and semiparametric frailty models. The gap timescale is more appropriate when studying the recurrent event rate as a function of time since the last event, whereas the calendar timescale keeps track of actual time. We show both timescales in action on data from an asthma prevention trial in young children. The frailty model is further extended to include both timescales simultaneously as this might be most relevant in practice.