Modeling Electrical Grid Resilience Under Hurricane Wind Conditions With Increased Solar and Wind Power Generation

This paper develops models for hurricane exposure, fragility curve-based damage to electrical transmission grid components and power generating stations using Monte-Carlo simulation, and restoration cost to predict resiliency factors including power generation capacity lost and the restoration cost for electrical transmission grid and power generation system damages. Synthetic grid data are used to model the Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electrical grid. A case study is developed based on Hurricane Harvey. This work is extended to evaluate the changes to resiliency as the percentage of renewable sources is increased from 2017 levels to levels corresponding to the NREL Futures Study 2050 Texas scenarios for 50% and 80% renewable energy.