Adolescent Behavioral Response to Hegemonic Coercion Versus Multilateral Equilibrium: A Scenario-Based Simulation (n=105)

This empirical working paper investigates adolescent decision-making behavior during a simulated transnational water governance crisis. Utilizing a quantitative, scenario-based A/B testing methodology (n=105, secondary cohort ages 13–16), the study compares behavioral compliance and conflict escalation under two distinct structural environments: (1) an upstream unipolar dictate, and (2) a multipolar equilibrium scaffolded by structured role-reflection prompts. The empirical results demonstrate a systemic resistance to unilateral coercion, with 76.2% of participants electing direct conflict or sanctions under the unipolar model. Conversely, under conditions of structural parity and structured inquiry, 77.1% of participants successfully negotiated a cooperative, durable multilateral treaty. These findings provide empirical evidence consistent with Neorealist structural balance theories (Waltz, 1979) and contemporary institutional legitimacy models (Ikenberry, 2011; Keohane, 1984).