When the Numbers Outgrow the Plan: Evidence-Based Welfare Triage During Donkey Programme Surges in Kenya

Working donkeys ( Equus asinus ) are essential to the livelihoods of millions of low-income households in rural and peri-urban Kenya, yet they remain largely absent from national livestock policy and severely underserved by veterinary and extension services. During the implementation of a Brooke East Africa donkey welfare programme across several Kenyan counties, community registrations attracted far more donkey-owning households than a single funding cycle was designed to support. In one episode, 125 owners presented a combined total of 307 donkeys against a programme budgeted and staffed to support a single cohort of 80 animals. Rather than defaulting to an arbitrary lottery or delivering a diluted service to everyone, implementing teams applied an evidence-based welfare triage, drawing directly on statistically validated predictors from published multi-county research: inadequate housing (OR 1.32), limited veterinary access (OR 1.37), rough terrain (OR 1.42), and forage scarcity (OR 1.61). A phased cohort model directed the full intervention package to the highest-risk animals first; a “cascade” layer of basic training reached every registered owner immediately; and transparent, baraza-style community communication sustained trust across a multi-year waiting period. This case demonstrates how a demand surge can be reframed into an opportunity for equitable resource allocation and evidence-based programming.