The fossilized pathways of novel technologies: how carbon capture, conversion, and utilization is poised to reinforce carbon lock-in

There is growing anticipation about a new suite of lab-scale carbon-related technologies, described as carbon capture, conversion, and utilization (CCCU). Their development, proponents claim, could provide a route to recycle carbon. The process, where electricity produced through renewable sources could be used to capture CO 2 and convert it to chemicals and fuels, would allow downstream industrial processes and energy systems to remain unchanged. We critically interrogate the development of CCCU to examine whether and how these technologies might disrupt or reinforce fossil fuel entrenchment, drawing on research on carbon lock-in. Carbon lock-in describes how interactions among infrastructures, technologies, institutions, actors, and norms constrain the rate of the phaseout—or the magnitude of the reduction—of fossil fuel use. We find that the development of CCCU technologies reinforces techno-enthusiasm for a growth-focused energy transition. We argue that such a value-chain-focused shift both obscures and reinforces three pathways of carbon lock-in: first, it perpetuates and helps grow carbon-based infrastructure, which limits durable transitions away from fossil fuels and delays change (infrastructure lock-in); second, it directs renewable energy expansion towards supporting carbon conversion, limiting broader economic transformations (economic lock-in); and third, it reinforces existing arrangements of corporate power (institutional lock-in). Our analysis reveals that if these technologies were deployed at scale, CCCU is poised to reinforce already powerful downstream industries and continue to concentrate corporate power. These developments could create new environmental harms. A critical carbon lock-in lens allows us to better identify and analyze the anticipated outcomes of advances in CCCU technologies.